Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump appears to be benefiting from a “convention bounce,” pulling ahead of Hillary Clinton in a number of national polls and two high-profile poll aggregators. Here are the most recent four polls listed by RealClearPolitics, all of which were conducted during or after the Republican National Convention:
Screenshot/RealClearPolitics
Trump also leads Clinton 44.1 percent to 43.9 percent in RCP’s polling average. And he’s pulled ahead in one of FiveThirtyEight’s polling trackers:
FiveThirtyEight’s actual November forecast, however, accounts for the convention bounce effect and still gives Clinton a 58 percent chance of winning. (Update, 10:30 a.m.: The New York Times’ Upshot site’s November forecast is also Clinton-friendly, giving the Democrat a 68 percent chance of winning.)
