For weeks now, Donald Trump and his Brit surrogate Nigel Farage have been touting the example of last summer’s Brexit vote to buck up supporters, as polls seemed to indicate Trump’s chances of winning the presidency were narrowing. Now, Trump’s description of himself as “Mr. Brexit” and his promises of a “Brexit plus plus plus” have been vindicated.
Except, it’s even crazier than that. Back when dumb journalists like me were dismissing the Trump-Brexit comparison, I noted that the analogy was weak. The polls heading into the Brexit vote were neck and neck. Any reasonable observer would have concluded that it was quite possible the Leave camp could win. Trump’s odds were far weaker.
But polling numbers aside, the underlying dynamic holds. As Farage told MSNBC last month: “You got the establishment saying, ‘Everything is fine. Trust us.’ [But] actually out there in middle England, and now here in middle America, there’s a lot of people saying, ‘You know what, the last few years I’ve seen the rich get richer, and our lives have not improved. It’s time for change.’” I would add that many of those people in both countries appear to have been driven by anger at immigrants and minorities. But, yeah, he had a point.
Britain now appears to be headed toward a much rougher ride with Brexit than its proponents promised their supporters. I suspect the United States is in for much of the same. Except Britain wound up with an uninspiring but basically competent leader in office. We’re not so lucky.
